Always Unpredictable. As It Should Be.

January 2, 2011

Major market indices were mixed last week. The DJIA gained 0.03%, the S&P 500 increased 0.07%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.48%. Value stocks outperformed growth stocks. And the small cap index lost 0.67%. The 10-Treasury yield remained dropped 10 basis points, closing at 3.30%.
Already fading in our rearview mirrors, 2010 saw equities markets rise for the second straight year. And while the drama and despair of 2008 still caused many to sit bolt upright in the wee hours, we cannot help but be placated by the market's response since.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 11%, with many of the index's stalwarts posting banner years. The S&P 500 rose 13%, the first time the index has posted double-digit gains in consecutive years since 2003-2004.
Mid-cap and small-cap equities were both up 25%. Emerging markets rose 16%. And commodities loomed large, with gold futures rising 30%, silver up 82%, cotton up 96% and coffee climbing 65%.
Unemployment remains at 9.8%. Not pretty. But companies appear poised to potentially kick start those numbers and last week's data drew closer to the magical 400,000 mark, where unemployment begins to decrease as companies add more than they cut.
Politically, the decade was nothing short of Broadway drama. The U.S. elected its first African American president. Saw the Twin Towers fall. And invaded Iraq and Afghanistan.
A resurgent Russia. Iran flexed its muscle, even from the box in which it had been placed. North Korea, like crazy Uncle Eddy, kept all of its neighbors up at night.
NATO expanded. The European Union stood on the brink of disintegration. Lehman Brothers and Bear Stearns went bust. Sinatra and Michael Jackson died. TCU won the Rose Bowl. And so much more.
Like Green Day said, "It's something unpredictable, but in the end its right. I hope you had the time of your life."
Without risk and unpredictability, there can be no reward.
Nobody knows what the next year, let alone the next decade, will bring. We can only manage risk, leverage opportunity, and make the most of the days we're given. Happy new year. Stay tuned.

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