Last week, a friend asked my opinion on how this untenable situation could persist. "We're probably already in the worst recession the nation has faced since the 1930s yet the stock market keeps moving higher. How?" Who could be faulted for his wretched state of confusion regarding today's economic environment? It is unprecedented. The next […]
Like Saturday's successful SpaceX launch, the rebound in U.S. stocks since they hit the March 23 low has been stellar. The S&P 500 index's best two-month's since 2009. Optimism over the nation's gradual reopening and progress towards the development of a coronavirus vaccine has lifted the S&P 500 36 percent. Cutting losses for the year […]
2020 appears ready to offer up another fascinating display of investor psychology battling the astute, manipulative and oft detrimental forces of poor investment tendencies caused by innate human biases. Investors will continue attempting to divine the proper border between risk and reward. Usually poorly. While hoping the expansive bull can stave off the bears and […]
Following the Chief's 31-20 Super Bowl victory over the Forty Niners, we close out yet another football season. Leaving millions of red-blooded American (and foreign) football fans with no gridiron outlet for eight months. No pre-ordained ritual permitting them to block out the rest of the world while college and NFL games play out before […]
Heading into the final two weeks of 2019, the S&P 500 had soared 28.5 percent, while a bond rally has pushed the yield on 10-year Treasury notes down more than three quarters of a percent. If such gains continue through New Years, it will mark the first time since 1998 when stocks have jumped by […]
Stocks extended their winning streak last week. As the Dow has risen four weeks in a row, the S&P has been higher six weeks in a row, and the Nasdaq has been up seven weeks in a row. YTD, the Dow began the week up 20.1 percent, the S&P is up 24.5 percent, and the […]
In his 2018 letter to shareholders, Warren Buffett sagely counseled, "If you mix your politics with your investment decisions, you're making a big mistake." We've long recognized such wisdom. As markets care little for party politics. Preferring to focus on earnings, productivity, efficiency, and other achievement-oriented metrics that rarely resonate through the political spectrum. Unfortunately, […]
Last week saw markets continuing to respond to headlines like Pavlov's Dog did the dinner bell. Take last Friday's news that the U.S. could de-list Chinese companies from U.S. exchanges. Equities went from positive territory into a steep, downward slide. Earlier in the week, impeachment talk had sent investors scurrying like rats from a sinking […]
Neil Shearing, chief economist at Capital Economics, recently published a provocative and timely client note that we'd like to share with you. It provides a historical perspective on the deterioration of U.S.-China relations, and what could come next. The following provides an edited excerpt. Enjoy. ... The decision last week by the US government to […]
Broader market indices drifted lower last week. Though it could have been worse. Following the previous Thursday's move higher, the market plummeted four percent. Falling Friday through Wednesday. Only to claw back two percent of those loses last Thursday and Friday. Why the quantum leap in volatility? The dreaded yield-curve inversion broke the water's surface. […]
