Menage a Trois? No. Menage a Trillions.

February 14, 2011

Major market indices were higher last week. The DJIA rose 2.27%, the S&P 500 increased 2.71%, and the Nasdaq gained 3.07%. Growth stocks outperformed value stocks. And the small cap index gained 3.19%. The 10-Treasury yield closed 32 basis points higher, closing at 3.64%.
50% of companies have reported 4Q earnings. Thus far, results have been exceptional. More S&P 500 companies are exceeding sales forecasts than at any time since 2006. This has contributed to the current equity rally, the biggest since 1936. And as sales tend to correlated to economic activity, this portends well for the broader economy.
At some point sales reach a positive point at which companies no longer need to let employees go. Then, we may see employment begin to markedly improve. Even though the unemployment rate went down to 9% last week, that had very little to do with a pickup in hiring. But that could change.
President Obama meets with American business leaders today. He will ask them to put cash to work in helping to boost the U.S. economy. Among the president's harshest critics, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce will likely hear Obama tout recent moves that have helped their cause. He will ask them to return the favor. Tit for tat.
While big business may lack the government's ability to throw money at everything, it does possess the ability to throw money at what works. And with recent signs continuing to underscore a broad economic ascension, I think you may see the president's dance card continue to fill up with the likes of Immelt, Seidenberg and Dimon.
The business community will continue to listen as Obama coos sweet nothings, sashaying them around the floor of the Recovery Ball.
The President is realizing that what is good for American companies is good for the American economy. And with only two years till the election, I expect this courtship to progress from sweet amiability to a frenetic sophistication.
Obama knows that 2012 won't be won in the ballot booths, but on the margins. The profit margins. The more, the better. And if the jobs market begins to rampantly improve, Obama may be able to extend his whirlwind corporate courtship another four years.
The market currently sits at the critical 1,300 level. Bears will make a furious stand at this juncture in the bull market. If they fail to stymie the bull's enthusiasm, then they will be forced to cover their short positions and this market will be propelled higher.
Bears have had tools at their disposal. Egypt. European debt issues. Yet, they have failed to turn the lights out on this party. If they cannot do so now, then let the babysitter know you'll be late. The after-hours party will be every bit as raucous as the initial get together.
Why? Because if Big Business gets behind Obama, who is already dancing with Bernanke, then we have a bullish ménage that you ignore at your own peril.
Imagine it...
The cozy chalet is warm. Inviting. Bernanke and Obama sit before a roaring fire. Champagne flutes in hand.
Bernanke rises from the bearskin rug. Lights another candle. And turns the interest rates way down low. Smiling sheepishly, he uncorks another bottle of QE2. Obama lifts his glass, dreamily watching the flames of an accelerating economy.
There's a forceful knock at the door. It's Big Business. And he's bearing gifts. Billions in capital expenditures. Touched, Obama whispers his thanks. Bernanke turns up the music. Bachman Turner Overdrive's "Takin' Care of Business" fills the room. Bernanke blushes. Big Business loosens his collar and sings along.
The three of them are temporarily lost in the moment. They envision thousands going back to work. A second term in office. A blissful four years.
Big Business saddles up. Hoisting the champagne, he drinks directly from the bottle. His cologne wreaks of success. He toasts Obama and Bernanke and then gazes longingly into the fire. Staring back at him are happy shareholders. Satisfied directors. Interview offers from CNBC.
Love is in the air.
This isn't just a ménage a trios. It's a ménage a trillions. And so the stage is set. Stay tuned.

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